This is not intended as advice for political campaigns. I’m just a British planner and I do not claim any great insight into the dynamics of US electorate, beyond the various podcasts and commentary that many of you also listen to.
But once again, an election has exposed deep divisions in western societies. We have the familiar sight of the liberal world shaking its head in disbelief and asking what went wrong.
The post-Brexit disconnect between delusional “liberal elites” and the reality for real people was a huge part of why we set up The Ninety-Niners. Particularly, informed by the great work by Andrew Tenzer and Ian Murray in The Empathy Delusion, which showed that advertising and marketing people not only think differently to mainstream audiences, they are also very bad at understanding the values of real people.
So it seemed appropriate to look at this latest election through the wider lens of marketing and ask, what did Trump do that brands should learn from?
1. Address real people’s concerns
For most of the campaign, the economy was the number one issue for US voters. Many voters felt worse off than 4 years ago and Trump’s promise of a return to better times resonated. Yet Harris failed to articulate a compelling answer, instead believing that her values would be sufficient to overcome a clear incumbency disadvantage.
Many brands fail to address the issues that real people care about. Marketers tend to project their own beliefs on to their audience. The talk about particularly features or values that excite them, but that do not connect with consumers.
2. Attract low attention consumers
The people who swung it are not the MAGA loyalist you see at rallies but 'low propensity voters'. These are folks who vote infrequently, are not engaged in politics and make a choice based on how they feel, not a rational analysis of the competing policies.
Similarly, real people don't care about brands. Successful brands win by attracting low frequency buyers, who don’t pay attention to brands and who make choices based on simple, emotional heuristics. Loyal fans may be more vocal, but it's the disinterested and indifferent that pay the bills.
3. Play the long game
The Trump brand has been decades in the making. Make America Great Again is nine years old. Trump is probably the most famous person in world. In contrast Kamala was unknown to most voters until a few months ago. And can anyone tell me what the campaign line was?
The most successful brands work over the long term. They build fame and mental associations over time and are most effective when delivering a consistent message year after year.
4. Get data literate
The polls weren't wrong. They were within the margin of error, particularly when looking at the polling averages. But they were poorly interpreted, usually with confirmation bias persuading people to see what they wanted to see in the numbers. In the last week, a single poll showing Harris up in Iowa made headlines across the world and convinced millions of the late democrat surge they were praying for. In the end, it was that one single poll that was dramatically wrong.
Marketers can be equally guilty of cherry-picking data points to support their story. When you live and breathe a brand, optimism bias is natural and it is easy to ignore difficult data or overfit trends to suit your story.
5. Make ‘em laugh
Whatever you think of Trump, millions of people find him entertaining. People were laughing at his rallies and entertained by his rambling stories and off-colour jokes. He is a showman with the Michael McIntyre-like ability to say things that his audience relate to.
Humour is a proven driver of effectiveness for brands, and yet according to Kantar, it is still in long term decline. More recently, Orlando Wood and Sir John Hegarty cite ‘showmanship’ as a key to overcoming creative mediocrity.
6. We've passed peak woke.
Regardless of what you personally think, a large number of people have had enough of "urban liberal elites" promoting an agenda that they don't believe in. Trump articulated a widespread backlash to the culture of political correctness, and made it OK for people to say what they want.
Similarly, it seems that real people have had enough of purpose-driven advertising. If you’re not convinced, go and read Steve Harrison's excellent Can’t Sell, Won’t Sell, or this article I wrote a couple of years ago. It doesn’t mean brands shouldn’t do the right thing in society. But they should remember that not everyone shares their beliefs. Most people are smart enough to realise that profit and shareholder value will always be the primary incentives for business. And they certainly respond badly to moralising, particularly if they view it as hypocritical.
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